Friday September 7 Ag News

Double Cropping Pulses with Short-Season Crops, Forages, and Cover Crops in Eastern Nebraska
Keith Glewen - NE Extension Educator

A research project is underway at the Eastern Nebraska Research and Extension Center (ENREC) near Mead to evaluate a double crop production system. The experiment was designed by University of Nebraska faculty and graduate students as a potential alternative to the traditional corn/soybean rotation commonly used in the area.

A corn/soybean rotation can often lead to soil degradation, over-reliance on pesticides and fertilizers, frequent outbreaks of diseases and insects, herbicide-resistance weeds, and increased financial risks associated with low market prices. Diversifying a crop production system by including additional crops or methods can help overcome many of these issues.

This experiment used yellow field peas as the first crop in the double crop system. Yellow field peas are typically planted in March and harvested in July. Although not evaluated in this experiment, winter wheat (seeded in September/October and harvested in July) could be another cool-season crop option and provide additional benefits by overwintering and protecting the soil. Wheat has the ability to perform well in eastern Nebraska.

The objectives of this project are:
-    to evaluate the yield potential of pulse crops (field peas, lentils, and chickpeas) in eastern Nebraska. Current market prices for pulse crops are on this USDA site.
-    to evaluate the feasibility of double cropping yellow field peas with short-season crops (corn, soybean, grain sorghum, millet and sunflower) and annual forages (forage sorghum and sorghum-Sudangrass) by measuring crop production and performing an economic analysis.
-    to investigate the benefits of incorporating cover crops and livestock grazing into the cropping systems.
-    to design the cropping system with an extended growing season that will minimize pesticide and fertilizer inputs and be more water-use efficient.

Pulse Crops Variety Trial
Although the double crop experiment is ongoing, an important component was to conduct a pulse crop variety trial to identify which varieties are best adapted to the environment in eastern Nebraska.  The variety trial was conducted adjacent to the double crop experiment at ENREC. Yellow peas, green peas, lentils, and chickpeas were planted early in the spring and evaluated for their characteristics such as flowering, maturity, plant height, test weight and yield.

More details here.... https://cropwatch.unl.edu/2018/double-cropping-pulses. 

Short season crops (corn, soybean, sunflower, millet and milo), annual forages (forage sorghum and sudangrass) and cover crops were planted right after field pea harvest. The research is ongoing and data on yield and water use will be shared following harvest.

This research is being funded by the North Central SARE and the pulse crop seed industry including Meridian Seed, Pulse USA, Great Northern Ag, Arrow Seed, Montana Integrity, and NS Seed.



Nebraska Beef Council September Board Meeting Notice

The Nebraska Beef Council Board of Director's will meet at the NBC office located at 1319 Central Ave. on Friday, September 21, 2018 beginning at 12:30 p.m. CDT. The NBC Board of Directors will review a draft of the FY 2018-2019 Marketing Plan. For more information, please contact Pam Esslinger at pam@nebeef.org. 



U.S. Chief Agricultural Negotiator to Join Fischer in Omaha

U.S. Senator Deb Fischer (R-Neb.) will host Chief Agricultural Negotiator in the Office of the United States Trade Representative, Ambassador Gregg Doud, in Omaha on Monday, September 10, 2018. Fischer and Ambassador Doud will host a roundtable discussion on trade with local agricultural representatives.

Gregg Doud serves as the Chief Agricultural Negotiator, with the Rank of Ambassador, in the Office of the United States Trade Representative. He was confirmed by the U.S. Senate on March 1, 2018. Prior to Ambassador Doud’s nomination, he was the President of the Commodity Markets Council, serving since 2013. Ambassador Doud was raised on a dry-land wheat, grain sorghum, soybean, swine and cow-calf farm in Kansas.  He also owns part of his family’s more than 100-year-old farming operation that his parents continue to operate.



Better Soybean Storage Starts With Good Harvest Moisture
Ken Hellevang - North Dakota State University Extension Agricultural Engineer

Harvest timing can have a huge impact on soybean shatter losses and storability. Field losses, splits and cracked seed coats increase as moisture content decreases.

Shatter losses increase significantly when seed moisture falls below 11% or when mature beans undergo multiple wetting and drying cycles. Also, molds develop more rapidly in soybeans with seed coat cracks, so the amount of mechanical damage during harvest affects the rate of bean deterioration.

Harvesting during high humidity, such as early morning, late evening, or in damp conditions, may reduce shatter loss and mechanical damage if the soybeans are below 11% moisture content. Moisture content can increase several points with an overnight dew or decrease several points during a day with low humidity and windy conditions. Avoid harvesting when beans are driest, such as afternoons.

The market moisture for soybeans is 13%, which is fine for storing soybeans during cool conditions. If your soybeans will be stored through winter and into the warmer weather of spring and summer, store at 11% moisture to limit mold growth and deterioration. The storage life roughly doubles for each percentage point of reduction in moisture content.

Storage Temperature
Controlling soybean temperature during storage is critical. Free fatty acid percentages, a negative characteristic, tend to increase with storage moisture, temperature, and time.

At 12% moisture, free fatty acid percentages increase slowly with storage time if the beans are kept cool. In one study, the average free fatty acid content of 12% moisture beans stored at 50°F stayed below 0.75% but exceeded this level after only four months when stored at 70°F.

Cool soybeans as they go through the fall and winter to maintain quality. Aerate to keep the soybeans within 10 to 15 degrees of the average outdoor temperature during the fall.

Store soybeans during the winter near 30°F in northern states and 40°F or lower in southern states.

During the spring and summer, aerate stored soybeans to keep the temperature as cool as possible —preferably 40-60°F. These temperatures enhance the storage life of soybeans and reduce mold and insect activity.

Soybeans at 11% moisture have similar storage characteristics as wheat or corn at 13.5% to 14% moisture. Use an allowable storage time chart for cereal grains to estimate allowable storage times for soybeans.

Storage Recommendations
-    Keep fans covered. Once soybeans are cooled, cover fan and duct openings to prevent snow or moisture from blowing into the bins during winter storage. Keep fans covered during the spring and summer to limit air from warming the soybeans. Ventilate the top of the bin to reduce solar heating affecting the beans at the top of the bin.

-    Monitor stored grain regularly. Outside temperature changes can result in temperature and moisture changes inside the bin. Monitor soybeans at least once every two weeks during winter storage and weekly during the fall until the grain has been cooled to winter storage temperatures. Monitor the soybeans weekly during the spring and summer. Measure the grain temperature and watch for indications of problems such as condensation, insect activity, and increasing grain temperatures. Record temperature values and grain condition to help track any changes.

-    Use available tools, but don't turn everything over to automation. Improved technology can help you better manage stored grain, but you still need to manage the grain and inspect it visually. Temperature cables allow you to monitor the stored grain temperature at several locations, and fan controllers can operate fans according to desired air conditions. Monitor and verify that fans are operating as desired.

-    Equalize soybean moisture content. Soybean moisture variation may lead to storage and marketing losses. Operating an aeration fan will help move moisture from wet to drier beans. Moisture movement will be minimal without aeration airflow. Initially, fans will have to run longer to equalize the moisture content than to cool the grain. The moisture will not be all the same, but it should become more uniform.

For more information, contact your local Extension office, see Grain Storage Management in CropWatch... https://cropwatch.unl.edu/grain-storage-management.  



WATERSHED STRUCTURES PREVENT FLOODING DAMAGES

           The storms over Labor Day weekend could have dampened more than just the spirits of Husker fans if not for the conservation practices in place throughout southeast Nebraska. Last weekend’s storms dumped over five inches of rain causing flooding in some areas. Flooding could have been worse if not for the watershed control structures in Jefferson, Gage and Saline counties, according to the USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS).

           NRCS, with assistance from the Lower Big Blue Natural Resources District, has constructed many flood control structures in Jefferson, Gage and Saline counties through the Watershed Protection and Flood Prevention Act. These flood control structures help slow and capture flood water, helping reduce damages to fields, roads and property.


          The Lower Big Blue NRD sponsored the watershed project and purchased the land rights in order to build the flood control structures. NRCS provided engineering expertise and over $18 million to construct the 165 floodwater control structures throughout watersheds in Jefferson, Gage and Saline counties.

           Flood control structures may easily go unnoticed across the landscape. But after a heavy rain event, like what was recently experienced in southeast Nebraska, these structures spring into action. They capture rushing flood water and hold the water back allowing it to be slowly released downstream. Slowing the water down and allowing it to be gradually released reduces damage to roads, bridges, fences, cropland and other property.

           According to NRCS Hydraulic Engineer Arlis Plummer, the existing flood control structures in Jefferson, Gage and Saline counties helped prevent over $4 million in flood damages from the recent storms.

           “With big rain events like this we really see the benefit of flood control structures. They work together with conservation practices to prevent damage to infrastructure. When things like roads and bridges are spared from damages, then we’re talking about a lot of dollars saved,” Plummer said.

             Scott Sobotka, assistant manager of the Lower Big Blue NRD in Beatrice surveyed the effects of the heavy rainfall. He saw how the flood control structures and conservation practices worked together to lessen the damage from the heavy rainfall.

           “Even though several flash flood warnings were issued, things could have been a lot worse if these flood control structures had not been in place,” Sobotka said.

           With nearly 900 watershed dams constructed statewide the Watershed Protection and Flood Prevention Act has benefited over 1.6 million acres in Nebraska.  Benefits include significant savings in soil erosion, water conservation, road and bridge damage reduction, wetland/upland wildlife habitat creation and most importantly, saved lives and property. The total benefits to Nebraska exceed $80 million each year according to NRCS.

           The recent heavy rain events have also demonstrated the importance of good soil conservation practices. According to Kelli Evans, district conservationist at the NRCS office in Beatrice, conservation practices like no-till, terraces, waterways and buffer strips protected fields from significant erosion.

           “Heavily tilled fields with no terraces or waterways have seen a lot of soil erosion. The fields where conservation practices were in place fared much better. This is because terraces and waterways help slow rainwater down reducing damages from heavy rains. No-till fields also saw less erosion since no-till helps protect the soil with last year’s crop residue. This residue helps capture the rainwater before it can run off fields, allowing it to soak in to the soil,” Evans said.

           For more information on installing conservation practices on your land to help prevent erosion and reduce flooding, contact your local Natural Resources Conservation Service office located in the USDA Service Center, or learn more at www.ne.nrcs.usda.gov.



Feeding Quality Forum summary - Seek answers for better beef
Miranda Reiman Director, Producer Communications, Certified Angus Beef

The world’s a changing. The nation’s cowherd is improving. What tweaks have you made in your own beef cattle operation?

Presenters at the Feeding Quality Forum, August 28 to 29 in Sioux City, Iowa, encouraged questioning the routine.

More than 200 took in the two-day meetings, where they got practical tips to use now as well as the “10,000-foot view” to spur thought, said Justin Sexten, director of supply development for Certified Angus Beef LLC (CAB). “People left with some knowledge they didn’t have before and hopefully more questions for their own team of experts, too.”

A dozen experts spoke to cattle feeders and their commercial cow-calf customers.

“We’re making genetic selections today that will impact your cattle herd for at least the next 10 years,” said Dan Moser, president of Angus Genetics Inc. There are more tools and data available than ever to create an animal that fits many environments while producing superior beef.

“Notice that word, ‘while’ – it’s not either/or,” Moser said. “We’ve got to think ahead to what the marketplace will demand.”

Rick Funston, University of Nebraska animal scientist, shared ways to develop heifers into long-lasting herd improvers.    

Advanced genetics won’t live up to their reproductive efficiency potential without focused herd management, he said. “What if we expose more heifers than needed but for 30 days only? What if we keep late-calving cows by using CIDRs and a shot of prostaglandin to move them up one, two, even three cycles?”

“Keep in mind we need well-rounded feeder cattle,” said CAB’s Paul Dykstra. The No. 1 reason cattle don’t make the brand is because they lack adequate marbling, but feedlot performance and yield on the rail are part of a calf’s value to buyers.

“At a time when we have dramatically more quality supply than ever before, we've increased the premiums because the cattle perform well on several levels,” he said.

John Gerber and Kevin Hueser of Tyson Fresh Meats talked about the source of all of those premiums: consumer demand.

“At Tyson we’re not going to say ‘no.’ That’s how we give the consumer what they want,” said Gerber, the packer’s head of cattle buying.

The trend includes more transparency and higher quality. All cattle Tyson sources are required to come from Beef Quality Assurance (BQA) certified suppliers by January 1, 2019.

“We’ve got to be transparent. We’ve got nothing to hide,” Gerber said.

Nigel Gopie, of IBM Food Trust, said sharing will get easier.

“A transparent food system matters,” he said. “Today we’re seeing a blurry view—80% of the world’s data is locked up in organizations’ databases. Only 20% is available through things like Google.”

The IBM  Food Trust looks to change that using blockchain technology to assign each data point a fingerprint, or “hash,” so users know the information source and that it’s in its original form.

A handful of large food companies from Walmart to Dole currently use blockchain, but it will take innovative thinking to get the masses onboard.

That’s exactly what veterinarian Sam Barringer, a commander on the Air Force Reserves medical team, suggested we need more of: out-of-the-box thinking.

“We've been doing the same things the same way for 20 years and we don't even know why we're doing it,” he said, drawing on his experience in Middle East war theaters.

Cattlemen can’t look at health and vaccination as synonymous, Barringer said. “If we were to vaccinate for every pathogen facing cattle, it would be 32 vaccines upon arrival. That’s not viable.”

Even the standard health protocols need some scrutiny, said Paul Walz, Auburn University veterinarian.

“We are at a point with evolving BVD that some of our vaccines no longer provide the same amount of protection,” he said, noting a survey of Nebraska calves showed 82% of BVD strains were outside of those on which vaccines are based. Risk varies from herd to herd and strategies may need to vary year to year.

Regardless of vaccine strain, the stress on newly arrived cattle at any feedyard can hinder efficacy, said Brian Vander Ley, epidemiologist at Nebraska’s Great Plains Veterinary Education Center.
“Vaccines are intended for use in healthy cattle,” he said. On arrival, some calves are too stressed to meet that practical definition. University of Arkansas data on high-risk calves showed an advantage to waiting a couple of weeks before administering those shots.

“Go home and talk to your folks, and make sure you’re doing the right things,” said nutritionist Jeff Heldt, with Micronutrients.

Referring to conversations about cattle supplement timing, storage and delivery, he said vitamins are finicky. They don’t like environments that are too hot, acidic, light or wet. 

“Feed manufacturers do a good job meeting mineral needs, but storage time of our products is pretty critical,” Heldt said.

Nutrition on the ranch, must be continued with a solid plan in the feedyard.

Dale Blasi, Kansas State University animal scientist, suggested feeders ask their consultants about limit feeding a grain-based ration to calves at 2.2% of their body weight. 

K-State work shows many benefits, from decreased cost of gain and better health to reduced labor and manure management.

It was common practice two or three decades ago. It might be time to revisit the strategy, Blasi said: “Something that’s been so in vogue for so long, working, why didn’t we stay with it?”

The world of nutrition may change slowly over time, but markets are the opposite.

Dan Basse, president of AgResource Co., returned to the forum to talk global markets and the causes of volatility.

“The world is really, really focused today on politics,” he said. He predicted fed cattle prices of up to $120 per hundredweight in the fourth quarter, nothing the model did not account for a trade deal with China in the near future.

“If that happens, it changes a lot,” he said.  “That’s our big hope in terms of the U.S. opportunity, to build demand and really get back to a bull market longer term.”

During the evening reception, longtime Nebraska cattle feeder Gerald Timmerman accepted the Industry Achievement Award.

“Gerald has a long history of putting the consumer first, and using technology and innovation to do it,” said Mark McCully, CAB vice president of production. “We’re proud to honor him.”



2018 Iowa Farm Bureau Summer Policy Conference

Iowa Farm Bureau members met in West Des Moines this week to develop the legislative policy direction on issues important to its statewide membership.

The grassroots farm organization’s voting delegates engaged in a lively discussion on several issues, including the need for the accurate labeling of food products.  Delegates approved policy reaffirming that food labels should be factual and not misleading to consumers.  Also this year, members agree that conservation needs to remain a priority, and discussed support for working lands conservation practices.

“The Iowa Farm Bureau Federation’s (IFBF) annual, two-day Summer Policy Conference is the culmination of our year-round policy development process and provides our organization with a clear direction on policy for the upcoming year,” says IFBF President Craig Hill.  “IFBF’s policy development process is truly grassroots with active engagement, participation, and input from members in each county.  This process ensures a strong, unified voice on behalf of our membership to support a vibrant future for Iowa agriculture, farm families and their communities.”  

Members showed their support for livestock farmers and were adamant during policy discussion that food labels should be factual and not misleading to consumers.

“We support truth in advertising,” said Jennifer Gardner of Van Buren County.  “Some people are labeling food to take advantage of the image of Iowa farmers and their ability to produce safe and nutritious food.”

Delegates passed policy stating that the terms ‘meat,’ ‘milk,’ and ‘eggs’ should only be used for those actual products, in order to provide more certainty and clarity to consumers.

“We’ve got to make sure we get ahead of this issue,” said Monroe County voting delegate Bryan Reed.  “If we allow them to use our livestock labels, like pork chop and ribeye on lab-grown meat, we’re going to be in a lot of trouble.”

IFBF delegates also reaffirmed support for working lands conservation practices, incentivized through federal cost share funding.  Cost share provided by the federal government on working lands will increase the adoption of effective conservation practices.        

The IFBF Summer Policy Conference is the final step of the year-round grassroots policy process in each of the 100 county Farm Bureaus across the state and leads the organization’s policy direction for the upcoming year.  National policies are subject to debate during American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) policy discussions, which will take place at the AFBF Annual Convention in New Orleans, Louisiana, January 11-16, 2019.



Silage Making with 2018 Weather Challenges

Corn silage has always been a major feed component in dairy and beef rations. However, this year's weather is making harvesting corn silage a challenge for many areas of the state. Northwest and northeast Iowa had excess rain early in the season making planting late so producers in northern Iowa may not be challenged as much with harvest, yet. Eastern Iowa was dry in the spring allowing early planting and now is challenged to harvest before the crop becomes too dry, especially with the heavy rains in September. Southern Iowa has been extremely dry all summer and is finally getting some much needed rain but too late to impact grain crops.

While every area of the state has had different growing conditions all have been challenging. Iowa State University Extension and Outreach beef specialist Denise Schwab said a few basic principles of corn silage harvest are critical to harvest and store a high quality corn silage feedstuff.

The number one priority for high quality silage is to harvest at the right moisture content. The bacteria that convert the plant sugars into lactic acid need the right moisture to drive fermentation. Ideally, the plant should be at 35 percent dry matter or 65 percent moisture to facilitate packing the silage to exclude oxygen and promote fermentation. What options do producers have when the plant gets drier than this? One might be to switch the storage method.

Retired extension forage specialist Steve Barnhart said the optimum silage moisture at harvest ranges from 55-60 percent (40-45 percent dry matter) for upright oxygen-limiting silos; 60-65 percent for upright stave silos; 60-70 percent for bags; and 65-70 percent for bunkers. Pay particular attention to moisture measurements; agronomists tend to talk in terms of moisture level while animal scientists tend to focus on dry matter levels.

Another option is to consider switching from silage to earlage or snaplage. Earlage or snaplage is harvested at closer to 62-65 percent dry matter. Earlage/snaplage is similar in protein levels but higher in energy value than traditional corn silage, so ration modification is needed, but it may provide a better feed storage option for corn that dries down prior to being able to get it chopped.

Chop length and kernel processing are important for dairy producers. Extension dairy specialist Hugo Ramirez-Ramirez suggests a theoretical length cut of .75 inch if using a kernel processor, or shortening the cut to .25 to .5 inch without kernel processing. University of Nebraska—Lincoln research showed a 7 percent improvement in finishing cattle feed to gain by kernel processing. As the corn plant gets drier, smaller particle size may aid in improved packing and fermentation but also needs to offset the cost of the additional processing.

Inoculants with lactic acid-producing bacteria will help speed the drop in pH to around 4.0, thus improving the fermentation process. This is particularly important in situations where an efficient fermentation process may be compromised. As standing corn becomes dryer, inoculants become more important. Whether it is silage, snaplage or earlage, Ramirez-Ramierz recommends that producers look into inoculants that contain Lactobacillus buchneri. This particular microorganism has been shown to improve “shelf life” or increase aerobic stability during the feed-out phase. This translates into less heating and less spoiling once the silage is open.

Packing also is critical and becomes more of a challenge with dry silage. Packing eliminates oxygen, which aids in the anaerobic fermentation process. Silage density needs to be around 14-16 pounds of dry matter per cubic foot to exclude oxygen. Bunkers and piles should be packed in layers no more than 6 inches at a time. Density is dependent on crop type, moisture, chop length, type of structure, delivery rate, packing weight and time. With dry silage, err on the side of extra packing time and weight.

The final and most important practice for quality silage is to seal and cover the silage, both to prevent the entrance of oxygen and to keep rain from infiltrating the silage. With less than ideal chopping and packing situations, consider adding both an oxygen barrier layer as well as a plastic cover. The oxygen barriers are special thin films that don’t allow oxygen penetration, whereas the traditional plastic silage cover prevents water infiltration. Both need to be weighted down to prevent air infiltration. If using old tires, be sure they all are touching other tires to get full coverage of the plastic.

These good practices are important for quality silage every year, but even more important in years like 2018 when wet weather is delaying silage harvest.



Iowa State University Economist Advises Cost Containment, and Patience, for Farmers Marketing Crop

As harvest approaches, Chad Hart, associate professor of economics at Iowa State University, urged Iowa farmers to watch their costs and be patient as they face a difficult market for corn and soybeans.

“This marketing year, like many of the previous years, will challenge producers’ patience and financial standing,” Hart said. “It will take some time for prices to recover and we may not yet have seen the low. But time is still on our side if we can position ourselves to ride out the next few months. Seasonal patterns and the current futures prices both suggest better prices will be available in the spring.”

In the meantime farmers need to control costs as best they can, be patient and utilize marketing strategies to take advantage of price rallies, he said. Many farmers use storage as it achieves two of these three objectives, but it makes sense this year also to re-examine their approaches to crop marketing and storage.

“Storage is never free; there are always interest and opportunity costs,” he said. “Each year farmers should evaluate the relative benefits of owning the crop physically versus re-owning the crop, either by futures and/or call options.”

Prices for grain were about breakeven when the year started and improved until trade tariffs started to be enforced and crop ratings exceeded expectations, driving projected returns into negative territory. Hart said some recovery has occurred, and could resume, as the trade markets shift — such as increasing crop shipments to north Africa.

“For those farmers who took advantage of this spring’s marketing opportunities, congratulations,” said the extension crop marketing specialist. “Those sales look exceptional now and they should make the rest of the year easier to get through. Looking forward, the keys to marketing this year are roughly the same as the ones for the previous few years, since we have once again returned to negative margin projections.”

After the release of the August U.S. Department of Agriculture reports, projected Iowa corn returns were hovering just below breakeven, while soybean returns remain well below zero. Both crops face large potential supplies, but soybeans are much more vulnerable to the trade tensions.

“Any recovery will likely look like the past couple of months — two steps forward, followed by one step back — as the harvest plays out and trade routes readjust to the new pricing and tariff environment,” Hart said.



Young, Peterson lead fight to reallocate RFS obligations exempted by EPA waivers

Iowa Congressman David Young and Minnesota Congressman Collin Peterson introduced the Restoring Our Commitment to Renewable Fuels Act which will reallocate waived renewable fuel obligations and require the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to disclose refineries who receive "hardship" waivers. Over the past two years, 2.25 billion gallons have been destroyed due to the unprecedented number of small refinery "hardship" waivers granted.

"The previous EPA Administrator undercut the Renewable Fuel Standard by giving so-called hardship waivers to companies, some of which made a $1 billion profit last year. This legislation will restore our commitment to renewable fuels and keep the promise made by the government to our farmers, producers, and businesses. It will also end the secretive practice the EPA has used to issue these waivers behind closed doors with no transparency for the American people," said Congressman Young.

“The EPA continues to chip away at the RFS by granting unjustified waivers to refineries. This bill will keep EPA accountable for maintaining the renewable volume obligations set each year, and shed a light on secret deals that are hurting corn and soybean farmers in my district,” said Congressman Peterson.

The EPA recently released its proposed 2019 Renewable Volume Obligations which did not include a plan to reallocate gallons that might be waived by the EPA for small refineries moving forward.



Baseline Updates for US Agricultural Markets
Food and Agriculutre Policy Research Institute, University of Missouri

Trade disputes and the expectation of high U.S. corn and soybean yields are weighing on the prices of many agricultural commodities. This report provides an update of the 2018 FAPRI‐MU baseline.

This update was prepared the week of August 20, 2018. Policies in place at that time, including the 2014 farm bill and China’s tariffs on U.S. agricultural products, are assumed to continue. The estimates do not incorporate the market facilitation payments and other trade compensation policies announced on August 27. The update uses 2018 acreage, yield and production estimates included in USDA’s August 2018 Crop Production report. The economy is assumed to evolve as forecast by IHS Markit in July 2018.

Given all of the assumptions of the analysis, here are a few highlights of the results:
·  China’s tariffs reduce U.S. soybean exports. Projected record soybean production in 2018 also contributes to a sharp increase in ending stocks. The marketing year average (MYA) price for soybeans falls to $8.73 per bushel in 2018/19, the lowest level since 2006/07.
·  In 2018/19, corn MYA prices increase to $3.62 per bushel and wheat prices increase to $5.12 per bushel. A reduced South American corn harvest in early 2018 boosts short‐term U.S. corn exports, and smaller wheat crops in Europe, Australia and other countries support wheat prices.
·  Soybean area falls by almost 5 million acres in 2019, as soybean returns drop relative to those for competing crops. Corn and wheat area each increase by about 2 million acres in 2019.
·  For the 2019/20‐2023/24 period, projected soybean prices average a little over $9 per bushel, wheat a little over $5 per bushel, and corn a little under $4 per bushel.
·  Reduced U.S. production and continued strong export demand cause the 2018/19 upland cotton MYA price to reach $0.75 per pound.
·  Projected ethanol production is relatively stable, given the assumption that implementation of the Renewable Fuel Standard follows recent practice, including small refinery waivers.
·  Cattle prices decline from 2018 to 2020 as production continues to increase. Live hog prices remain below $45 per hundredweight for three straight years, as production continues to expand and tariffs slow growth in U.S. exports.
·  Milk prices drop below $17 per hundredweight in 2018, as U.S. milk production increases and international markets weaken.
·  Consumer food price inflation increases to 1.6% in 2018, as the index of prices for food consumed at home increases for the first time in three years.

Markets will continue to evolve as we get more information about the size of the 2018 crop and as trade and farm policies change. For more detail on the livestock, poultry and dairy sectors and on consumer food prices, see a companion report by the MU Agricultural Markets and Policy team, at http://amap.missouri.edu/.




Beef Market Implications
Brenda Boetel, Extension Economist, Dept of Ag Econ, University of Wisconsin-River Falls

Seasonal beef production increases are expected in the latter half of the year. Although the supply increases may be lower due to recently lower than expected slaughter weights there will still be year-over-year beef production increases of 3.3 percent (down from expectations of 3.7%). This supply pressure will continue to put long-term downward pressure on prices.

This increase in beef production will be occurring simultaneously with the increase in pork production. Export markets have until recently absorbed large amounts of our increased animal protein production. Higher tariffs and weaker demand is putting pressure on those exports. USDA's Economic Research Service released its quarterly Situation and Outlook report last week, in which they forecast exports of beef, pork, dairy, poultry and other livestock products to be down $300 million in FY 2019. Beef exports are projected down $100 million due to lower prices, while pork is forecasted down $300 million due to weaker demand and retaliatory tariffs.

Beef trade has been supportive of beef prices. The bigger trade concern for cattle is the indirect effects from decreased trade opportunities for pork. Futures markets will react quickly and aggressively to political announcements that may or may not materialize into market changes. Increasing/decreasing the market export opportunities is similar to increasing/decreasing the size of the cattle herd. It takes a long time to increase the number, but we can lose our markets very quickly. The short-term excitement over the U.S.-Mexico agreement has worn off as people realize the agreement isn't finalized or ratified.

Getting NAFTA finalized however would free up trade negotiators for more discussions with China. Beginning those negotiations with China now may possibly have fortuitous timing impacts as China will start needing U.S. soybeans in the next few months, as well as U.S. pork. The Chinese demand for U.S. soybeans and pork will depend on trade as well as impacts felt from the African Swine Fever, a highly contagious disease with no known vaccine.



 NPPC MEMBERS TO LOBBY CONGRESS ON PORK INDUSTRY ISSUES

The National Pork Producers Council will host its fall Legislative Action Conference in Washington, D.C., next week, Sept. 12-13. The biannual fly-in draws from around the country more than 125 pork producers, including 18 who will be participating in NPPC’s Pork Leadership Institute, a grassroots leadership development program.

Producers will lobby congressional lawmakers on issues of importance to the U.S. pork industry, including asking them to urge the Trump administration to end trade disputes and pursue bilateral trade agreements, to rescind regulations detrimental to agriculture, to approve visa reform to address an agricultural labor shortage and to support establishing and funding a Foot-and-Mouth Disease vaccine bank.



Farmers Union to Host 350 Family Farmers for Fly-In

Amidst an historic decline in net farm income and added disruptions in agricultural trade and biofuel markets, National Farmers Union (NFU) will host 350 family farmers and ranchers in Washington, D.C., next week to meet face-to-face with top Trump administration officials and members of Congress as they decide on a number of legislative and regulatory priorities for farm country.

The advocates will travel from across the country to the nation’s capital to push for passage of a farm bill that supports family agriculture, strong protections from international trade market disruptions, and expansion of the American grown biofuel market. The NFU Fly-In Talking Points package can be found here.

NFU will kick off the Fly-In on the morning of Wednesday, September 12, with a briefing at the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), where participants will hear from U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Sonny Perdue and other top officials at USDA and the office of the U.S. Trade Representative. Following that, the Farmers Union members will make their way over to Capitol Hill for a Farm Bill Forum, where they will engage with members of Congress on legislative priorities.

On Thursday and Friday, Fly-In participants will visit all 535 congressional offices to meet with members of Congress and congressional staff to deliver their personal stories as to how federal level policies impact their families and communities. NFU will also honor congressional champions for family agriculture with the organization’s Golden Triangle Award.



Group Files Reply in Beef Checkoff Case

R-CALF USA, through its attorneys, filed its reply in the federal district court in Montana to the U.S. Department of Agriculture's (USDA's) opposition to the group's motion to expand the scope of their beef checkoff case to include more states.

The district court granted, and the appellate court upheld, a preliminary injunction stopping USDA from violating the U.S. Constitution by compelling Montana cattle producers to pay for the private speech of the private Montana Beef Council without the producers' consent.

R-CALF USA asked the court to expand the case to include 13 additional states in which producers are similarly required to pay for the private speech of their respective private beef councils without their consent. The USDA filed an opposition to the group's request, essentially claiming the USDA would be prejudiced if the court expanded the case because the government would then be deprived of arguing their position in each of the courts in the states where the additional beef councils are located.

Today's reply urges the court to expand the case to include 15 states, by adding Maryland. The reply states the case rests on the sole question of whether the government has violated the Constitution by compelling producers to fund private speech without their consent. Because civil actions may be brought against the federal government in any federal district court, R-CALF USA asserts the Montana federal court has jurisdiction over both the USDA and the Constitution and can, therefore, include the additional states.

In his statement Thursday, R-CALF USA CEO Bill Bullard explains why his group is seeking to expand the lawsuit:

"Our goal is to defend the constitutional right of every cattle producer to choose whether to fund private speech. We want to empower independent cattle producers to hold their respective beef councils accountable for the money that is received and spent. We want to uphold the principals of our free market system by making the decision to fund private speech voluntary. And, we want independent producers to have a meaningful opportunity to express either their satisfaction or dissatisfaction with how the overall beef checkoff program is operated.

"We also want independent producers to be able to withhold funds when they are used to promote corporate control over their industry or corporate promotion. And, we want to empower independent producers to put an end to the pay-to-play scheme in which state beef councils send millions of dollars to the National Cattlemen's Beef Association-controlled Federation of State Beef Councils while the NCBA is lobbying Congress to defeat initiatives important to producers, such as mandatory country-of-origin labeling and reforms to prevent meatpackers from manipulating cattle markets.

"The fact that beef checkoff dollars are used to promote the Global Roundtable for Sustainable Beef, which attempts to control producers by dictating how they must raise their cattle, is clear evidence that independent producers have lost their right to choose the path their industry will follow into the future.

"Our goal to empower independent producers will be made possible if we prevail in our lawsuit and are able to include tens of thousands of more independent cattle producers under the protection of our court-ordered injunction."

Attorneys for R-CALF USA include lead counsel David Muraskin, a Food Project Attorney at Public Justice, J. Dudley Butler, of the Farm and Ranch Law Group, and Bill Rossbach of Rossbach Law, P.C. in Missoula, Montana.



Applications Still Being Accepted for the ASA Conservation Legacy Awards

Share the story of how conservation is part of your farm operation and you could be recognized with a Conservation Legacy Award. The application deadline has been extended to Friday, Sept. 14. The awards recognize farm management practices of U.S. soybean farmers that are both environmentally friendly and profitable.

Are you using a reduced tillage practice on your farm? Do you grow cover crops? Have you taken steps to improve energy efficiency or water quality? These are just a few conservation practices used on some farms today that can help produce sustainable U.S. soybeans. Different regions of the country have their own unique challenges and ways to approach conservation and sustainability. We want to hear your farm’s conservation story!

All U.S. soybean farmers are eligible to enter to win a Conservation Legacy Award. Entries are judged on soil management, water management, input management, conservation, environmental management and sustainability.

A new region has been added to this year’s program in order to recognize the conservation accomplishments of more U.S. soybean farmers. The four regions included are, the Midwest, Upper Midwest, the Northeast and the South. One farmer from each of these regions will be recognized at the 2019 Commodity Classic in Orlando, Fla., and one of these farmers will be named the National Conservation Legacy Award recipient.

Award Winners Receive:
• An expense paid trip for two to Commodity Classic, Feb. 28 – March 2, 2019, in Orlando, Fla.
• Recognition at the ASA Awards Banquet at Commodity Classic.
• A feature story in Corn & Soybean Digest and a video featuring the award winner’s farm and conservation practices.
• Potential opportunity for the national winner to join other farmer-leaders on an international trip to visit U.S. soy customers overseas.

More information on past winners of the award and how to submit your application is available in the “Awards” section of the ASA website www.soygrowers.com. All applications must be submitted by Friday, Sept. 14, 2018.



Ag Equipment Companies Closing Inventory Gap

For the first time in three years, the gap between Ag equipment dealers' and manufacturers' opinions on equipment inventory levels has significantly narrowed.

In a 2018 survey conducted by the Association of Equipment Manufacturers (AEM) and the Equipment Dealers Association (EDA) of their respective members, the majority of dealers report that their new inventory is just right, although inventory is still too high. By contrast, manufactures have consistently held a more positive opinion of their dealers' inventory.

In 2016, the first year this survey was completed, a significant majority of dealers felt that both their new and used inventories were too high. In 2017, while there was still a slim majority of dealers that thought inventory was too high, there was almost a 20 percent decrease from 2016. By contrast, the last two years of data showed that manufacturers believe that inventory of both new and used equipment are at the right level.

When considering the second quarter (April, May and June) of 2018, manufacturers agree - although not by wide margins - that their companies' inventories are staying about the same. They agree much more dramatically (65 percent) that their dealers' inventory levels remained stable in the second quarter. Dealer respondents on the other hand, overwhelmingly reported that both new and used inventories have been decreasing.

While overall the results of the 2018 survey are positive for both dealers and manufacturers, there are economic implications to consider. Based on previous research, AEM and EDA know that, in regards to inventory, both groups are cognizant of the potential effect of steel and aluminum tariffs on the industry.